It seems that emerging countries spared by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, called the "suprime" crisis. Is this a simple cyclical coincidence, or a long-term structural difference between industrialised countries and countries such as China, India and Saudi Arabia ? Will emerging countries be able to pull global growth ?
Are emerging countries immuned against financial crisis ? Of course not. Financial crisis have always existed, and always will, no matter how many mesures of prevention we take. But we can meditate on the actual layout of the international financial system.
The financial crisis was launched during the Summer 2007 in industrialised countries. As opposed to the crisis during the 80s and the 90s, this time, emerging countries have neither been responsible for the 2007/2008 crisis, nor the victims.
Have emerging countries been spared by the supbrime crisis because of short-term or long-term reasons ?
What if the growth of industrialised countries slowed down ? Will emerging countries pull global growth ? Are the economic cycles of emerging countries "decoupled" from economic cycles in "advanced" countries ?
If emerging countries are indeed very little affected by the financial crisis, it is for structural reasons.
The reason why emerging countries are immuned, is because the balance between the world financial powers has changed lately. During the past ten years, major events have turned upside down the assessment of world trade gaps and surpluses.
Listen to Jacques de Larosière, former chairman of the International Monetary Fund.
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